2017 Hurricane Season Review

2017 Named storm tracks

2017 Named storm tracks

Summary:

  • Above average storm activity
  • Anna Maria Island evacuation for Irma, but no flooding, contrary to forecast 5′ – 15′ surge
  • 2 landfalls on Florida Gulf Coast (Irma and Philippe)
  • Broad swath of property damage, trees downed, and power outages across Florida from Irma
  • Minor damage to Anna Maria Island properties and trees. Maximum wind reported was 92mph as the eye of Irma traveled inland of the island
  • Anna Maria City Pier and restaurant damaged beyond repair
Anna Maria City Pier hurricane damage

Anna Maria City Pier hurricane damage Photo: Jack Elka, The Islander

Some Ficus, Banyan, Norfolk Pines blew over

The 2017 hurricane season was more active than predicted by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project forecast team. Three major hurricanes struck the United States: Harvey, Irma and Maria, causing devastating destruction to islands in the Caribbean and other portions of the tropical Atlantic:

“The 2017 hurricane season was extremely active. Overall, our predicted numbers from our early July and August issue dates for named storm and hurricane formations were relatively close to what was observed, but our early season predictions and our predictions for integrated metrics such as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) were far too low,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast at CSU.

Atlantic Hurricane Season April June 2017 forecast 2017 Actual
Named storms (>35mph) 11      13  16
Hurricanes (>72mph)  4       6  10
Major hurricanes (>111mph)  2       2  6
US landfall likelihood 42%   55%  31%
Gulf Coast landfall 24%   32%  13%

The Named Storms:

Arlene – Tropical Storm Apr 19-21 pre-season in Eastern Atlantic

Bret – Tropical Storm Jun 19 – 20 landfall Venezuela

Cindy – Tropical Storm Jun 20 – 23 landfall central Gulf Coast

Don – Tropical Storm Jul 17 – 18 no effects on land

Franklin – Hurricane Cat 1 Aug 7- 10 affecting Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Mexico

Gert – Hurricane Cat 2 Aug 13 – 17 no effects on land

Harvey – Hurricane Cat 4 Aug 17 – Sep 1 Landfall Yucatan and massive flooding in Houston,Texas

Irma – Hurricane Cat 5 Aug 30 – Sep 12 Devastated Leeward Islands, northern Cuba, landfall SE Florida with coast to coast hurricane force wind

Jose – Hurricane Cat 4 Sep 5 – 21 no effects on land

Katia – Hurricane Cat 2 Sep 5 – 9 Landfall eastern Mexico

Lee – Hurricane Cat 3 Sep 15 – 29 no effects on land

Maria – Hurricane Cat 5 Sep 16 – Sep 30 Landfall in Caribbean islands, badly affecting Puerto Rico

Nate – Hurricane Cat 1 Oct 4 – 9 crossed central America and Yucatan

Ophelia – Hurricane Cat 3 Oct 9 – 15 no effects on land

Philippe – Tropical Storm Oct 28 – 29 crossed Cuba and Florida Keys

Rina – Tropical Storm Nov 6 – 9 no effects on land

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Anna Maria Island 11th Annual ArtsHOP 2017

Anna Maria Island ArtsHOP 2017
Anna Maria Island hosts the 11th Annual Arts event for 2017 with exhibitions, performances and shows.

Thursday, November 9th:
6pm – 8:30pm public reception for “10byTen,”  exhibit in honor of the The Studio at Gulf and Pine’s 10th anniversary.
8pm “The Game’s Afoot” performed by “The Anna Maria Island Players” at the Island Playhouse.

Friday, November 10th:
10am – 3:30pm Ice Cream Social and Museum Tour at the Anna Maria Island Historical Society on Pine Avenue in Anna Maria.
5pm – 7:30 PM, downtown Gallery Walk, Holmes Beach with local art, refreshments, art demonstrations, live music and a chance to meet the artists.
8pm “The Game’s Afoot” performed by “The Anna Maria Island Players” at the Island Playhouse.

Saturday, November 11th:
12 – 5pm Bridge Street Gallery Walk, Bradenton Beach.
4:30 – 7:30pm  “Symphony on the Sand” by The Anna Maria Island Concert Chorus & Orchestra at Coquina Gulfside Park beach.
8pm “The Game’s Afoot” performed by “The Anna Maria Island Players” at the Island Playhouse.

Sunday, November 12th:
2pm “The Game’s Afoot” performed by “The Anna Maria Island Players” at the Island Playhouse.

Continue reading “Anna Maria Island 11th Annual ArtsHOP 2017” »

Permit For Holmes Beach Hotel

Updated 3-2016 and 9-2017 below.
Back in 2001, a former landmark restaurant “Pete Renard’s”, and briefly “Marina Bay”, lay abandoned and deteriorating in the heart of Holmes Beach. Opposite the main mall Island Shopping Center, and sitting on prime waterfront with boat canals and docks, the previously family run night spot with the revolving floor and popular restaurant changed hands and then closed.

Holmes Beach City Mainsail Tidemark marina

It’s been 7 15 years since an aspiring developer put together a plan for a complex of 40 luxury hotel condominiums, a deepwater marina for yachts and boats up to 65 feet in length, a restaurant, lounge and meeting facilities, to be called Tidemark Lodge & Marina.

Pre-construction sales of condominium suites were priced from the $300,000s to the $600,000s. The plan was approved by the city commission and demolition began. Periodic press releases promised great things even as long periods passed with no activity on the site.

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Manatee Watch

manatee by NOAA National Ocean Service

Photo by NOAA National Ocean Service

Anna Maria Island includes several areas where manatees graze seagrass beds and pass through boat channels and canals. On the Gulf beach, in 2011, a herd of 13 manatee congregated and had to be patrolled by Police to keep onlookers from endangering themselves and the animals.

Finding and viewing manatees in the wild is a rare occurrence but Bradenton has one, named “Snooty”, at the South Florida Museum. He was born in 1948 and is the oldest manatee in captivity. You can see “Snooty” at the Parker Manatee Aquarium, 201 10th St W., Bradenton.
Update July 23, 2017: Snooty died by accident one day after its 69th birthday.

Update August 31, 2017: South Florida Museum board of trustees admitted to being at fault when it announced Snooty became stuck and drowned in a tunnel due to negligence and complacency by staff, who were aware of a loose cover panel that was not repaired. “Justice for Snooty” is calling for resignations or firings of museum CEO Brynne Anne Bresio and COO Jeff Rodgers. Aquarium director Marilyn Margold no longer works at the museum. Staff have received additional training with a new checklist and record-keeping instructions.

Mote Marine Lab has two manatees, and numerous other aquatic wildlife, at their research facility Mote Marine Laboratory, 1600 Ken Thompson Parkway, Sarasota, at City Island off Lido Key.

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast


The season’s first updated June forecast for Atlantic hurricanes in 2017 has been released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.

(April 6 ) This year, 2017, the expectation is for a “below average” year, based on 29 years of observations from 1981 to 2010. There is the potential for shear-enhancing El Niño conditions to develop over the next several months. The tropical Atlantic has cooled over the past month, and the far North Atlantic is currently colder than normal. These cold anomalies tend to force atmospheric conditions that are less conducive for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.

(June 1) We have increased our forecast and now believe that 2017 will have approximately average activity. The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have diminished somewhat, and portions of the tropical Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past two months. While the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, the far North Atlantic remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

August 2004, Hurricane Charley washed out part of Captiva Island.

August 2004, Hurricane Charley washed out part of Captiva Island.

From http://tropical.colostate.edu :-

We anticipate that the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below- average activity. The current neutral ENSO is likely to transition to either weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
by Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell (as of 6 April 2017)

An analysis of a variety of different atmosphere and ocean measurements (through March) which are known to have long-period statistical relationships with the upcoming season’s Atlantic tropical cyclone activity indicate that 2017 should have slightly below-average activity. The big question marks with this season’s predictions are whether an El Niño develops, as well as what the configuration of Sea Surface Temperatures will look like in the tropical and far North Atlantic Ocean during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

June 1 – Our confidence that a weak to moderate El Niño will develop has diminished since early April. While upper ocean content heat anomalies have slowly increased over the past several months, the transition towards warm ENSO conditions appears to have been delayed compared with earlier expectations. At this point, we believe that the most realistic scenario for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is borderline warm neutral ENSO to weak El Niño conditions. There remains a need to closely monitor ENSO conditions over the next few months. Additional discussion of ENSO will be included with the July 1 and August 4 updates.

2017 Forecast numbers:

Atlantic Hurricane SeasonApril    June 2017 forecast29-year Median
Named storms (>35mph winds) 11         13
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds) 4             6
6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds) 2             22
US landfall likelihood42%        55%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability24%        32%30%
Major Hurricane in Caribbean
probability
34%        44%42%
Manatee County hurricane landfall
probability*
0.6%        0.7%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm
probability*
14.7%      18.3%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts
probability*
4.2%        5.4%5.0%

* http://landfalldisplay.geolabvirtualmaps.com

Tracks of major hurricanes making Florida peninsula and East Coast landfall during 1916-1965 and 1966-2015.

Tracks of major hurricanes making Florida peninsula and East Coast landfall during 1916-1965 and
1966-2015.

Continue reading “2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »