The first early forecast for the 2015 hurricane season has been released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, predicting another quiet year:
We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century.
It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall.
The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present.
We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
– Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, April 9, 2015
|Atlantic Hurricane Season|| April 2015 forecast||Average|
|Named storms (>35mph winds)|| 7|
|Hurricanes (>72mph winds)|| 3|| 6.5|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)|| 1 || 2|
|US landfall likelihood||28%||52%|
|Gulf Coast landfall probability||15%||30%|
|Major Hurricane in Caribbean probability||22%||42%|
|Manatee County hurricane landfall probability *||0.3%||0.7%|
|Manatee County tropical storm probability*||8.1%||17.1%|
|Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability*||2.3%||5.0%|
Early season forecasts are based on historical statistics and computer models that predict outcomes using climatological conditions present in January to March. The CSU model has been accurate in predicting above or below average seasons 23 out of 33 times, or 70%.
Measurements used include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and zonal wind strengths. Eastern tropical Pacific conditions in August to October, such as weak trades, low SST and SLP, are associated with La Nina formation, which is conducive to high activity in the tropical Atlantic. High SST, SLP and strong trades prevent warm air propagating from Western Pacific to the tropical Atlantic area and is referred to as El Nino, which correlates to a quieter Caribbean summer.
2015 Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly – El Nino
Continue reading “2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »
The 2014 hurricane season has arrived and the extended range summer analysis forecasts below-average activity and landfall strike possibility.
“We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”
Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, June 2, 2014
|Atlantic Hurricane Season|| June 2014 forecast||Average|
|Named storms (>35mph winds)|| 10|
|Hurricanes (>72mph winds)|| 4 || 6.5|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)|| 1 || 2|
|US landfall likelihood||40%||52%|
|Gulf Coast landfall probability||23%||30%|
|Manatee County hurricane landfall probability||0.5%||0.7%|
|Manatee County tropical storm probability||12.3%||17.1%|
|Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability||3.5%||5.0%|
Information obtained through May 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average. An anticipated below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is due to the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter cooler than normal tropical Atlantic.
Continue reading “2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »
The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, was released April 10. The forecast anticipates enhanced activity compared to 1981-2010 climatological averages.
“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
|Atlantic Hurricane Season|April August 2013 forecast |1981 – 2010 average|
|Named storms (>35mph winds)| 18 18
|Hurricanes (>72mph winds)| 9 8
|Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)| 4 3
|US landfall likelihood||72%||52%|
|Gulf Coast landfall probability||47%||30%|
|Manatee County hurricane landfall probability||1.7%||0.7%|
|Manatee County tropical storm probability||27.9%||17.1%|
|Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability||8.5%||5.0%|
Florida hurricane tracks since 1851
Continue reading “2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »
2012 Atlantic storm tracks
- No effects on Anna Maria Island besides some temporary beach erosion by Debby.
- 2 storms (Alberto, Beryl) formed prior to official season start June 1
- Earliest “D” named storm ever recorded
- No “major hurricanes” (Cat 3 or higher) made US landfall
- 4 storms made US landfalls (Beryl, Debby, Isaac, Sandy)
- Largest storm area of 900 miles across ever recorded (Sandy)
- Hurricane Sandy (Cat 2) caused major wind damage and flooding to NJ and NY shorelines with peak surge coinciding with high tide.
|Atlantic Hurricane Season||June 2012 forecast|| 2012 Actual|
|Named storms (>35mph)||13||19|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph)||2||1|
|US landfall likelihood||48%||21%|
|Gulf Coast landfall||28%||5%|
Beryl – Tropical Storm, 65mph wind, May 26-30, landfall Jacksonville Beach Florida, heavy rain in Cuba, Bahamas, South Florida
Debby – Tropical Storm, 60mph wind, June 23-26, landfall Steinhatchee Florida, heavy rain in north Florida with west coast beach erosion
Continue reading “2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review” »
All eyes were on the tropics last week as a depression formed into the named storm Isaac, which soon became tropical storm strength and headed into the Caribbean towards Hispaniola. Haiti took the first hit with heavy rains and flooding. Cuba was next in line with high surf and over-wash on the northern coast.
As Isaac continued unsubdued by land and on over the warm waters of the Florida Straights, intensification appeared likely but lack of vertical alignment of the core left the center ill-defined and passed by Key West with relatively little impact.
Meanwhile, Tampa prepared for the Republican Party national convention in the coming week but switched over to storm mode. The forecast path would bring Tropical Storm Isaac up the Gulf of Mexico coastline and risked dangerous consequences for the low-lying city and convention visitors.
Continue reading “Tropical Storm Isaac Effect On Anna Maria Island” »