2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, was released April 10. The forecast anticipates enhanced activity compared to 1981-2010 climatological averages.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Atlantic Hurricane SeasonApril August 2013 forecast1981 – 2010 average
Named storms (>35mph winds) 18    18
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds) 9        8
6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds) 4        3
2
US landfall likelihood72%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability47%30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability1.7%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability27.9%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability8.5%5.0%
Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

“This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño.”

For the full forecast and supporting data see http://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2016/07/2013-04.pdf

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