2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2014 hurricane season has arrived and the extended range summer analysis forecasts below-average activity and landfall strike possibility.

“We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, June 2, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season June 2014 forecastAverage
Named storms (>35mph winds) 10
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)  4  6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)  1   2
US landfall likelihood40%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability23%30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability0.5%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability12.3%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability3.5%5.0%

Information obtained through May 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average. An anticipated below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is due to the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter cooler than normal tropical Atlantic.

Current Atlantic Basin Conditions

The tropical Atlantic is relatively cold at the moment with the typical hurricane development area having the coolest surface temperatures since 2002. The eastern Atlantic is warming faster than the west.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variation, May 2014

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variation, May 2014

Of course, it takes only one storm to be catastrophic if you are in the wrong place, and normal, prudent preparations for hurricane season still apply.

  1. Secure your property for airborne missiles and rising water
  2. Store adequate food and water for outages
  3. Arrange emergency papers and bug-out bags
  4. Know your evacuation destination and contacts.

The 50-year probability of more than 40 mph wind gusts in Manatee County is a certainty and the probability of more than 115 mph wind gusts is 55.4% (source).

For full report and data see http://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2016/07/2014-06.pdf

Further updates will be released July 1 and July 31.

Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

Compare last year’s 2013 Atlantic season forecast and 2013 hurricane review .

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