The 2020 extended range tropical forecast has been published by Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.
As at April 2, the forecast is for above average activity for the Atlantic Ocean basin. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal and potentially expect weak La Niña conditions by this summer or fall.
The forecast predicts an above average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
(full details at
2020 Forecast numbers:
|Atlantic Hurricane Season||April 2020 forecast||30-year Median|
|Named storms (>35mph winds)||16||12.1|
|Hurricanes (>72mph winds)||8||6.4|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)||4||2.7|
|US landfall likelihood||69%||52%|
|Gulf Coast landfall probability||44%||30%|
|Major Hurricane in Caribbean|
|Manatee County hurricane landfall|
|Manatee County tropical storm|
|Manatee County >75mph wind gusts|
September 9th, 2017, after 11 years without hurricanes, Anna Maria Island was in the western wind field of Hurricane Irma, out of the storm surge quadrant but suffering downed trees and power outages. The Anna Maria City Pier was damaged beyond repair and is still not open to the public after 3 years of rebuilding, and unlet to a commercial tenant.
Currently the beaches of Anna Maria Island; Bradenton Beach, Holmes Beach and Anna Maria City, are in good shape, with increasing dunes of sea oats and wide sand deposits, which bodes well for resisting storm erosion and protection of turtle nesting.