The forecast for the Atlantic basin hurricane season of 2011 has been released by the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science from Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray.
They continue to foresee above-average activity for 2011, and above-average probability of a major hurricane landfall.
“We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic.
This forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We expect current La Niña conditions to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season. Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.”
Atlantic Hurricane Season
June 2011 forecast
1950 – 2000 average
Named storms (>35mph)
16
9.6
Hurricanes (>72mph)
9
5.9
Major hurricanes (>111mph)
5
2.3
US landfall likelihood
72%
52%
Gulf Coast landfall
47%
31%
An interesting section of this year’s report is an analysis of wide-spread speculation that global warming is increasing hurricane activity. Using data back to 1945, there have been periods of increased activity during cooling trends, and decreased activity during warming.
“The U.S. landfall of major hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005 and the four Southeast landfalling hurricanes of 2004 – Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, raised questions about the possible role that global warming played in those two unusually destructive seasons. In addition, three category 2 hurricanes (Dolly, Gustav and Ike) pummeled the Gulf Coast in 2008 causing considerable devastation.
Some researchers have tried to link the rising CO2 levels with SST (sea surface temperature) increases during the late 20th century and say that this has brought on higher levels of hurricane intensity.
These speculations that hurricane intensity has increased due to CO2 increases have been given much media attention; however, we believe that they are not valid, given current observational data.”
“For instance, in the quarter-century period from 1945-1969 when the globe was undergoing a weak cooling trend, the Atlantic basin experienced 80 major (Cat 3-4-5) hurricanes and 201 major hurricane days. By contrast, in a similar 25-year period from 1970-1994 when the globe was undergoing a general warming trend, there were only 38 Atlantic major hurricanes (48% as many) and 63 major hurricane days (31% as many). Atlantic SeaSurfaceTemperatures and hurricane activity do not follow global mean temperature trends.”
Closer to our home here on Anna Maria Island, the historical record of hurricane paths over the last 90 years looks like trending to lower landfalls, but odds are still high.
“We believe that the Atlantic basin remains in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong THC (thermohaline circulation). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925.”
There’s more to surviving hurricane season than knowing how and when to evacuate. Even in summers without any significant hurricanes coming near the island, I have noticed that hurricanes still interfere with life, and cause stress.
We usually are very lucky to get plenty of warning about every major storm of the season. The tracking begins very early, when they still are far from Florida. Although this early warning can save lots of lives, it also wears on the nerves, as we pay attention to every single storm for days and days. There’s usually a storm somewhere, so this means we are looking at storms and worrying about the results for most of the summer. If nothing else, it is distracting and tiring.
From June through October, we tend to obsess about watching tropical updates on the local news channel and on the Weather Channel, at ten minutes before the hour. Then there are all the programs about storm disasters. It’s enough to make you nervous even if no storm comes your way.
Then, if it looks like a storm might be coming your way, life is interrupted even more. At our house, we begin to pay attention to how many bottles of water we have, and to how much canned and dried food. If the predicted cone-shaped path of the hurricane continues to include Anna Maria Island, we then start organizing our important possessions. We make sure we have enough plywood for the windows. In the years before we had a mainland evacuation destination, we also would look around for motels on the mainland, and often we’d make a reservation just in case we needed it. The problem is that it’s sometimes difficult to know, ahead of time, exactly which nights you might need that reservation. And you might not need it at all. But if you wait, the motels will be full and there is the risk of having nowhere to go.
Anna Maria Island has a lot of little old houses with little old windows. I live in one of them. The windows are the old jalousie style, which crank open like blinds, in horizontal sections. The seals on the metal frames around these old windows are poor. The fit of the window sections into the frame is not always tight. In one case, I’ve even used tape to cover a gap between the window and window frame. The glass is thin and weak. It’s time for new windows!
Ideally, my new windows would meet the standards of the Miami-Dade building code, which is the gold standard for all windows in hurricane territory. They would pass the large missile test, namely, they would not shatter if a six-foot-long two-by-four hit the window at 34 miles per hour. And they would pass the small missile test, enduring ten ball bearings hitting the window repeatedly at 50 miles an hour.
A month ago I got the renewal notice for my home owners insurance premium. Although it had actually gone down a little after the policy was sold from Citizens Insurance, the Florida-run insurer of last resort, to another carrier, I still thought that it was a lot of money.
But how can I save any more on the cost of home owners insurance? The last thing I needed was being underinsured with inadequate coverage.
One mistake that was made on the Citizens policy was the description of the roof type. It was marked ‘gable’ when it was actually ‘hip’. I had asked for a correction to the policy but from the renewal notice I found out that the correction had not been made a year ago.
But I also requested a discount for having hurricane clips or anchors on the roof trusses and framing. It is easy to see from the outside what a roof shape is, but not so easy to prove there are anchors in the walls and rafters. I needed a certified inspector’s declaration to satisfy the insurance company.
Anna Maria Island beaches felt the effects of Hurricane Ike this week with several days of high surf and high water.
Every day this past week brought a good swell and copious waves as Ike passed 300 miles away to the south west of Anna Maria Island.
The storm emerged off the coast of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico with Tropical Storm strength winds and soon intensified into a Category 2-3 hurricane heading northwest.
All eyes were on the tropics this week as a tropical depression in the Atlantic became a storm named Fay, when wind speeds hit 39 mph.
As Fay crossed the Dominican Republic and Haiti, forecasters correctly predicted a turn to the NW and over Cuba. With no sign of weakening over land, Fay headed toward Florida’s SW coastline, maintaining 60mph winds, and leaving a wake of flooding rains as it made its first US landfall over Key West.
The official start to the Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1st. Now is a good time to make preparations for an emergency evacuation and formulate your disaster plan.
The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has published its forecast for the Atlantic basin hurricane activity, based on 58 years of past data and predictive statistical analysis. Early season forecasts are for the following:
Atlantic Hurricane Season
April 2008 forecast
1950 – 2007 average
Named storms (>35mph)
15
9.6
Hurricanes (>72mph)
8
5.9
Major hurricanes (>111mph)
4
2.3
US landfall likelihood
69%
52%
Gulf Coast landfall
44%
30%
The active year of 2005 and Hurricane Katrina may have passed into memory, and 2007 was a quiet season for the Florida Gulf Coast, but tropical activity is intensifying each year. Remember that a record breaking two intense Category 5 hurricanes made landfall in Mexico last year. And it was just 2004 when Hurricane Charlie breached North Captiva Island, not far south of here.
The recent Myanmar cyclone is a wake-up call that the hurricane season is upon us.
On Saturday, May 31st, Manatee County Homebuyer and Hurricane Expo will be held at the Manatee Civic Center, Haben Blvd, Palmetto, 10am – 3pm. The expo will present personal hurricane planning, disaster planning, and property protection.
In another episode of the continuing non-reality show of “Let’s see what FEMA rules are today”, letters from the Federal Emergency Management Agency to the local island cities offices announced that buildings “having the lowest floor one foot or more below the base flood elevation will no longer be eligible for the CRS discount.”
The Community Rating System is a method of assessing cities’ overall exposure to flood damage loss. By installing adequate drainage systems and enforcing building codes to mitigate flood damage, communities can be eligible for a 5 – 45% discount for residents’ flood insurance premiums.
FEMA’s new edict beginning May 1st excludes specific properties “at high risk” and “not compliant” in the “Special Flood Hazard Area” from getting the community discount. A homeowner will discover if he is excluded when their flood insurance policy comes up for renewal – the policy will have a small zero in the CRS discount box.
But some people in older houses with ground floor living area don’t need to panic yet. Houses that were built prior to 1975 are grand-fathered in, plus there are several other exemptions from the ‘rule’.
Whatever your current structure, be it old, new, remodeled, non-conforming, grand-fathered, permitted, exempt, or other, don’t expect a notification of change to your flood coverage cost. Your first clue will be when you get your flood insurance annual renewal bill.
City of Holmes Beach commissioners presented their first reading of a draft new ordinance related to building code and permitting in the city’s floodplain.
The 31-page ordinance is the result of FEMA, (We’re Here To Help You), having questions about code implementation and compliance with current standards.
On February 12th, the city commissioners put a moratorium on new building permits until a new regulations could be researched and analyzed. The March 25th meeting brought to light the draft reading.
The new regulations are expected to improve ranking with the National Flood Insurance Program system, which provides discounts for cities that participate in the government’s flood insurance program.
The intent is to “attempt to mitigate and prevent the cumulative effect of obstructions of floodplains causing increases in flood heights and velocities and occupancy in flood-hazard areas by uses vulnerable to floods of hazardous to other lands which are inadequately elevated, flood proof or otherwise unprotected from flood damages.”
The NFIP defines building improvements in the floodplain as minor or major. A major, or “substantial improvement” is
