2014 Atlantic Storm tracks
- Below average activity with fewest named storms since 1997
- No effects on Anna Maria Island
- No landfalls on Florida
- 1 Gulf of Mexico storm (TS Dolly)
- 1 US mainland landfall (Arthur)
- 2 major hurricanes (Cat 3 Edouard and Cat 4 Gonzalo)
- The US broke a record of 9 years without a major hurricane landfall. The last major hurricane to make US landfall was Wilma (2005). The previous record of eight years was from 1861-1868.
- Florida broke a record of 9 years without a hurricane impact (since 1851). The previous record of five years was from 1980-1984.
|Atlantic Hurricane Season|| June 2014 forecast|| 2014 Actual|
|Named storms (>35mph)|| 10|| 8|
|Hurricanes (>72mph)|| 4|| 6|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph)|| 1|| 2|
|US landfall likelihood|| 40%|| 12%|
|Gulf Coast landfall|| 23%|| 12%|
Continue reading “2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review” »
The 2014 hurricane season has arrived and the extended range summer analysis forecasts below-average activity and landfall strike possibility.
“We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”
Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, June 2, 2014
|Atlantic Hurricane Season|| June 2014 forecast||Average|
|Named storms (>35mph winds)|| 10|
|Hurricanes (>72mph winds)|| 4 || 6.5|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)|| 1 || 2|
|US landfall likelihood||40%||52%|
|Gulf Coast landfall probability||23%||30%|
|Manatee County hurricane landfall probability||0.5%||0.7%|
|Manatee County tropical storm probability||12.3%||17.1%|
|Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability||3.5%||5.0%|
Information obtained through May 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average. An anticipated below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is due to the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter cooler than normal tropical Atlantic.
Continue reading “2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »
2013 Atlantic Storm Tracks
- The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active season so far this century, and
the quietest on record since 1950.
- No effects on Anna Maria Island.
- 1 storm made US landfall in NW Florida (T.S. Andrea).
- 2 hurricanes barely reached Cat 1 (Humberto, Ingrid).
- Season’s latest recorded hurricane since 1960 (Humberto, September 11th).
- Fewest hurricanes per named storms in historical records.
- No “major hurricanes” (Cat 3 or higher).
- Lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 1983.
|Atlantic Hurricane Season|| June 2013 forecast|| 2013 Actual|
|Named storms (>35mph)|| 18|| 13|
|Hurricanes (>72mph)|| 8|| 2|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph)|| 3|| 0|
|US landfall likelihood|| 72%|| 7%|
|Gulf Coast landfall|| 47%|| 7%|
The Named Storms
Andrea – Tropical Storm, June 5-7, 55kn wind, landfall ‘Big Bend’ of Florida.
Barry – Tropical Storm, June 17-19, 40kn wind, landfall Belize; then Veracruz, Mexico.
Continue reading “2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review” »
The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, was released April 10. The forecast anticipates enhanced activity compared to 1981-2010 climatological averages.
“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
|Atlantic Hurricane Season|April August 2013 forecast |1981 – 2010 average|
|Named storms (>35mph winds)| 18 18
|Hurricanes (>72mph winds)| 9 8
|Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)| 4 3
|US landfall likelihood||72%||52%|
|Gulf Coast landfall probability||47%||30%|
|Manatee County hurricane landfall probability||1.7%||0.7%|
|Manatee County tropical storm probability||27.9%||17.1%|
|Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability||8.5%||5.0%|
Florida hurricane tracks since 1851
Continue reading “2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »
2012 Atlantic storm tracks
- No effects on Anna Maria Island besides some temporary beach erosion by Debby.
- 2 storms (Alberto, Beryl) formed prior to official season start June 1
- Earliest “D” named storm ever recorded
- No “major hurricanes” (Cat 3 or higher) made US landfall
- 4 storms made US landfalls (Beryl, Debby, Isaac, Sandy)
- Largest storm area of 900 miles across ever recorded (Sandy)
- Hurricane Sandy (Cat 2) caused major wind damage and flooding to NJ and NY shorelines with peak surge coinciding with high tide.
|Atlantic Hurricane Season||June 2012 forecast|| 2012 Actual|
|Named storms (>35mph)||13||19|
|Major hurricanes (>111mph)||2||1|
|US landfall likelihood||48%||21%|
|Gulf Coast landfall||28%||5%|
Beryl – Tropical Storm, 65mph wind, May 26-30, landfall Jacksonville Beach Florida, heavy rain in Cuba, Bahamas, South Florida
Debby – Tropical Storm, 60mph wind, June 23-26, landfall Steinhatchee Florida, heavy rain in north Florida with west coast beach erosion
Continue reading “2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review” »