Hurricane Charley washed over Captiva Island in 2004

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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The 2018 extended range tropical forecast has been released updated by Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.

As at April 5 July 2, the forecast is for slightly above average storm activity below average activity for the Atlantic Ocean basin. The current weak La Niña is not expected to transition into a significant El Niño by summer and fall. El Niño conditions create vertical wind shear that inhibits hurricane formation. Without wind shear, the tropical Atlantic is conducive to storm development.

We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased. With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well.

The forecast predicts a slightly above-average below average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
(full details at https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/07/2018-07.pdf)

2018 Forecast numbers: Continue reading “2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »

Beach Front Island Homes

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What styles of Anna Maria Island homes are on the Gulf beach?

Construction on sandy beach front has changed a lot in 80 years, with easier access, higher standard of living, FEMA rules, and wealthier newcomers. Many older properties have been remodeled and often demolished to be replaced by larger houses.

Here are a few examples of houses built since the island’s early visitors through to today’s new construction.

White beach cottage 1940

Built c.1940

Yellow bungalow 1945

Built c. 1965

Continue reading “Beach Front Island Homes” »

Anna Maria Island High Season

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Bean Point beach Anna Maria

Bean Point beach Anna Maria

When is the Anna Maria Island High Season? That depends on who you ask. For the rental industry, most tourists come in winter, between Thanksgiving and Easter. Rates go up towards the end of November and down about the beginning of May.

But times are changing and the “shoulder” seasons are extending into all of November and after April. Summer is also the busiest time for day visitors, who escape the inland heat for the cooler beaches and water activities and bring their kids who are out of school. Longer daylight hours attract after-work beachgoers. However, these visitors don’t have an impact on the rental real estate market as much as they do on the restaurant and bar trade.

As a year-round resident, who endures the high humidity and storms of summer, my respect for the wisdom of the snowbirds grows every year. From October through May, there are many days that are just about perfect. The people who come here during that period avoid a lot of discomfort and worry. They don’t have to worry about whether they are in a structure that will withstand the high winds of summer hurricanes. They don’t have to postpone a walk for fear of being struck by lightning, as often is the case in summer. The good news for those of us who stay here year-round is that high tourist season does not fill the entire period from October through May, so we get to enjoy many days that are near perfect, without crowds.

The busiest time of year seems to be around Presidents’ Day, the third Monday in February. Schools are on break and warmer weather brings out the winter hibernators. Travel can be brought to a standstill for hours as cars search for parking spots and bridge openings stop traffic flowing. Congestion is increasing each year as more people discover Anna Maria Island and try to squeeze onto a finite space.

Continue reading “Anna Maria Island High Season” »

Tour Of Homes Anna Maria Island 2018

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The 2018 “Tour Of Homes” is Saturday, March 17th, from 10 am to 4 pm. This year will mark the 25th for the event that raises money for the non-profit community center “The Center of Anna Maria Island”, which provides educational and recreational programs for youths, teens, seniors, and a disaster shelter.

These are the 5 homes open to visitors and a bazaar at The Center.

  • 242 Gladiolus Drive, Anna Maria
  • 420 Magnolia Avenue, Anna Maria
  • 1 Palm Harbor Drive, Holmes Beach
  • 627 Emerald Lane, Holmes Beach
  • 628 Key Royale Drive, Holmes Beach
242 Gladiolus Drive, Anna Maria

242 Gladiolus Drive, Anna Maria

420 Magnolia Avenue, Anna Maria

420 Magnolia Avenue, Anna Maria

1 Palm Harbor Drive, Holmes Beach

1 Palm Harbor Drive, Holmes Beach

627 Emerald Lane, Holmes Beach

627 Emerald Lane, Holmes Beach

628 Key Royale Drive, Holmes Beach

628 Key Royale Drive, Holmes Beach

Admission charge is $30 with tickets available at The Center, home tour locations, and local businesses.
Proceeds benefit The Center of Anna Maria Island programs.

The Center Of Anna Maria Island, 407 Magnolia Avenue, Anna Maria

The Center Of Anna Maria Island, 407 Magnolia Avenue, Anna Maria

For the Tour Of homes, The Center holds a bazaar, with original arts and crafts for sale and auction, in addition to a raffle to win a handmade quilt created by the Eyeland Needlers (tickets $1). Food and refreshments are available from vendors.

Free parking is available at Crosspointe Fellowship Church located at 8605 Gulf Drive, Holmes Beach.

Park and Ride at the Crosspointe Fellowship Church

Park and Ride at the Crosspointe Fellowship Church

You are encouraged to bike, shuttle bus, ride The Center van, or take volunteers’ complimentary golf cart rides to the Tour of Homes locations as street parking is limited.

Real-time traffic conditions on island bridges and roads are available at:
http://www.localconditions.com/weather-bradenton-florida/34215/traffic.php

Weather conditions can be found at:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/us/fl/anna-maria/KFLANNAM2

2017 Hurricane Season Review

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2017 Named storm tracks

2017 Named storm tracks

Summary:

  • Above average storm activity
  • Anna Maria Island evacuation for Irma, but no flooding, contrary to forecast 5′ – 15′ surge
  • 2 landfalls on Florida Gulf Coast (Irma and Philippe)
  • Broad swath of property damage, trees downed, and power outages across Florida from Irma
  • Minor damage to Anna Maria Island properties and trees. Maximum wind reported was 92mph as the eye of Irma traveled inland of the island
  • Anna Maria City Pier and restaurant damaged beyond repair
Anna Maria City Pier hurricane damage

Anna Maria City Pier hurricane damage Photo: Jack Elka, The Islander

Some Ficus, Banyan, Norfolk Pines blew over

The 2017 hurricane season was more active than predicted by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project forecast team. Three major hurricanes struck the United States: Harvey, Irma and Maria, causing devastating destruction to islands in the Caribbean and other portions of the tropical Atlantic:

“The 2017 hurricane season was extremely active. Overall, our predicted numbers from our early July and August issue dates for named storm and hurricane formations were relatively close to what was observed, but our early season predictions and our predictions for integrated metrics such as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) were far too low,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast at CSU.

Atlantic Hurricane Season April June 2017 forecast 2017 Actual
Named storms (>35mph) 11 13 16
Hurricanes (>72mph)  4 6  10
Major hurricanes (>111mph)  2 2 6
US landfall likelihood 42% 55% 31%
Gulf Coast landfall 24% 32% 13%

The Named Storms:

Arlene – Tropical Storm Apr 19-21 pre-season in Eastern Atlantic

Bret – Tropical Storm Jun 19 – 20 landfall Venezuela

Cindy – Tropical Storm Jun 20 – 23 landfall central Gulf Coast

Don – Tropical Storm Jul 17 – 18 no effects on land

Franklin – Hurricane Cat 1 Aug 7- 10 affecting Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Mexico

Gert – Hurricane Cat 2 Aug 13 – 17 no effects on land

Harvey – Hurricane Cat 4 Aug 17 – Sep 1 Landfall Yucatan and massive flooding in Houston,Texas

Irma – Hurricane Cat 5 Aug 30 – Sep 12 Devastated Leeward Islands, northern Cuba, landfall SE Florida with coast to coast hurricane force wind

Jose – Hurricane Cat 4 Sep 5 – 21 no effects on land

Katia – Hurricane Cat 2 Sep 5 – 9 Landfall eastern Mexico

Lee – Hurricane Cat 3 Sep 15 – 29 no effects on land

Maria – Hurricane Cat 5 Sep 16 – Sep 30 Landfall in Caribbean islands, badly affecting Puerto Rico

Nate – Hurricane Cat 1 Oct 4 – 9 crossed central America and Yucatan

Ophelia – Hurricane Cat 3 Oct 9 – 15 no effects on land

Philippe – Tropical Storm Oct 28 – 29 crossed Cuba and Florida Keys

Rina – Tropical Storm Nov 6 – 9 no effects on land

Continue reading “2017 Hurricane Season Review” »