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Environment

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2022 season storms brought extensive and expensive damage to parts of Florida and Puerto Rico. Anna Maria Island experienced a relatively quiet season with the exception of Hurricane Ian. Storm damage was mainly to roof shingles and soffits in the 40-80mph winds.

There were 14 named storms of greater than gale force wind, same as recent year average. Of these, eight intensified to hurricane strength of over 72 mph, two of these became major hurricanes of over 111 mph sustained winds. Notably, August was the first time since 1997 that there was no storm at all.

Hurricane Ian tied for the fifth-strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S., at Category 4 with 150 mph maximum sustained winds. Ian posed a severe threat to the southwest coast of Florida as it intensified after crossing the Dry Tortugas of Florida Keys September 28, then slammed into Costa Cayo near Punta Gorda, transited central Florida and exited the state at Cape Canaveral. It then continued north and made a third landfall at Georgtown South Carolina.

Hurricane Fiona made landfall as a Category 1 at Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Niccole was the season’s third U.S. landfall at Hutchinson Island Florida as a Category 1.

The forecast trajectory of Hurricane Ian put Anna Maria Island on watch several days ahead for proximal impact. The storm strengthened as it traveled up the west gulf coast. Expectations of a major catastrophe were in everyone’s minds as residents prepared to evacuate inland.

Authorities issued mandatory evacuation orders, meaning local emergency services would not be available if people stayed. Usually the loss of electricity can be expected but alternative resources can be planned. Controversially they ordered the water supply shut off early in the days before the storm’s forecast arrival. Once off the island, return would require an official permit. Most people evacuated whether they wanted to or not.

Hurricane Ian forecast wind field September 27, 2023

As the forecast path fluctuated left and right, the angle of approach made projected landfall vary by 100’s of miles. Being on the east or west side of a counterclockwise rotating hurricane center can make a huge difference in wind strength and resultant impact.

Hurricane Ian forecast path prior to landfall.
Hurricane Ian forecast windy.com

Similarly to Hurricane Charley in 2004, Hurricane Ian trended right during the last few hours before landfall, lashing Anna Maria Island with gusty winds from the north but little rain, and no storm surge, while exploding into Captiva Island 70 miles south, leaving a devastating wake of crushed and submerged houses, downed trees, washed out bridge to the mainland, and flooded cars and boats over a wide swath from Fort Myers to Port Charlotte and inland. Storm surge was reported to be up to 18 feet above sea level. 114 people died.

Hurricane Nicole made an east coast landfall near Vero Beach, Florida, with 75 mph (120 km/h) sustained winds. Nicole then weakened to a tropical storm inland, as it moved across Central Florida. Later that day, its center briefly emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, north of Tampa, before moving onshore again northwest of Cedar Key. Impact on Anna Maria Island was minimal.

Hurricane Nicole skirted Tampa Bay and Anna Maria Island November 10, 2022.

Complete List of Storms 2022

NameDateCatMax
wind
mph (km/h)
Areas affectedDeaths
AlexJune 5–6TS70 (110)Yucatán Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, Northern Bahamas, Bermuda4
BonnieJuly 1–2TS50 (85)Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Colombia, Venezuela, ABC Islands, Central America (before crossover)4
ColinJuly 1–2TS40 (65)South Atlantic United States1
DanielleSeptember 1–8Cat 190 (150)Western Iberian PeninsulaNone
EarlSeptember 3–10Cat 2105 (165)Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, Newfoundland2
FionaSeptember 14–24Cat 4130 (215)Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Eastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Eastern Canada31
GastonSeptember 20–26TS65 (100)AzoresNone
IanSeptember 23–30Cat 4155 (250)Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Colombia, ABC islands, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Southeastern Coast of the United States?157
HermineSeptember 23–25TS40 (65)Canary IslandsNone
ElevenSeptember 28–2935 (55)NoneNone
TwelveOctober 4–735 (55)NoneNone
JuliaOctober 7–9Cat 185 (140)Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, ABC Islands, Colombia, Central America (before crossover)91
KarlOctober 11–15TS60 (95)Southern Mexico3
LisaOctober 31 – November 5Cat 185 (140)Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Central AmericaNone
MartinNovember 1–3Cat 185 (140)NoneNone
NicoleNovember 7–11Cat 175 (120)The Bahamas, Southeastern Coast of the United States11
Categories
Environment

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2021 became the third most active season on record with 21 named storms, and the sixth year in a row of above average of storms of prior seasons. April forecasts projected slightly higher activity than average.

The first named storm Ana formed May 22, earlier than the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season of June 1 to November 30.

July 1 began with Hurricane Elsa, an early strong storm, causing major damage to Barbados then again on the US east coast after crossing northern Florida and Georgia.

The forecast trajectory of Elsa put Anna Maria Island on watch several days ahead for proximal impact but the storm weakened as it traveled up the west gulf coast as a tropical storm and passed by with below gale force wind and minor rain. The highest gust reported at Sarasota Airport was 54mph. About 2.8” rain fell locally. One Florida man was killed by a falling tree.

Hurricane Elsa forecast path July 2, 2021

Hurricane Ida began August 23 in the Caribbean Sea and intensified rapidly into a category 1 hurricane as it hit Cuba with 80mph winds. Then Ida continued to strengthen over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters into a category 4 storm with 150mph winds, making landfall in Louisiana at a wind strength tying the records of 1856 and 2005 (Katrina).

Anna Maria Island and Florida west coast were unaffected.

Hurricane Ida forecast path August 27, 2021

The complete list of 2021 Atlantic named storms:

NameDateCategoryMax WindAffected
AnaMay 22 – 23TS45Bermuda
BillJune 14 – 15TS65East Coast of the United States, 
Atlantic Canada
ClaudetteJune 19 – 22TS45Southern 
Mexico, 
Southern United States, 
Atlantic Canada
DannyJune 27 – 29TS45South Carolina, 
Georgia
ElsaJuly 1 – 9Cat 185Lesser Antilles, 
Venezuela, 
Greater Antilles, 
South Atlantic United States, 
Northeastern United States, 
Atlantic Canada, 
Greenland, 
Iceland
FredAugust 11 – 17TS65Lesser Antilles, 
Greater Antilles, 
The Bahamas, 
Southeastern United States, Eastern 
Great Lakes Region, 
Northeastern United States, Southern 
Quebec, 
The Maritimes
GraceAugust 13 – 21Cat 3125Lesser Antilles, 
Greater Antilles, 
Yucatan Peninsula, Central Mexico
HenriAugust 16 – 23Cat 175Bermuda, 
Northeastern United States, Southern 
Nova Scotia
IdaAug 26 – Sep 1Cat 4150Venezuela, 
Colombia, 
Cayman Islands, 
Cuba, 
Southern United States, 
Northeastern United States, 
Atlantic Canada
JulianAug 28 – 30TS60None
KateAug 28 – Sep 1TS45None
LarryAug 31 – Sep 11Cat 3125Lesser Antilles, 
Bermuda, 
East Coast of the United States, 
Nova Scotia, 
Newfoundland, 
Saint Pierre and Miquelon, 
Greenland
MindySep 8 – 10TS45Colombia, 
Central America, 
Yucatán Peninsula, 
Florida, 
Georgia, 
South Carolina
NicholasSep 12 – 16Cat 175Mexico, 
Gulf Coast of the United States
OdetteSep 17 – 18TS45East Coast of the United States, 
Atlantic Canada
PeterSep 19 – 23TS50Hispaniola, 
Leeward Islands, 
Puerto Rico
RoseSep 19 – 23TS50None
SamSep 22 – Oct 5Cat 4155West Africa, 
Leeward Islands, 
Puerto Rico, 
Bermuda, 
Iceland
TeresaSep 24 – 25Sub TS45Bermuda
VictorSep 29 – Oct 4TS65None
WandaOct 31 – Nov 7TS50Southern United States, 
Mid-Atlantic states, 
Northeastern United States, Bermuda, Atlantic Canada
2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Storm Tracks
Categories
Environment

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

Summary:

An active 2020 summer storm season passed by Anna Maria Island with minor effects. Hurricane Eta caused a surprisingly high storm surge and flooding overnight coinciding with a high tide. A local business man died from electrocution after touching a flooded appliance.

  • Above average storm activity
  • No Anna Maria Island evacuations
  • 2 landfalls on Florida Gulf Coast, Sally and Eta
  • Minor damage from Eta 2′ surge, which flooded some low-lying Anna Maria Island properties. Minor squalls and rainfall.
Fastest growing storms of 2020
US Mainland landfalls 2020

“I think really what stood out to me about 2020 was the extremely active late season. October and November were extremely active with seven storms and a whopping four major hurricanes (Delta, Epsilon, Eta and Iota).” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast at CSU.

The causes of the active year, according to NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell, included warmer-than-average Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and a stronger west African monsoon, along with wind patterns coming off Africa that were more favorable for storm development. 

“These conditions, combined with La Niña, helped make this record-breaking, extremely active hurricane season possible.”

While it’s clear warmer ocean temperatures make storms stronger, there’s still vigorous debate among top climate scientists on the question of whether warmer waters lead to a greater number of tropical systems. 

 “My colleagues and I feel that the jury is very much out on the topic of global tropical cyclone frequency,” said Dr. Kerry Emanuel from MIT, a leading researcher on how climate change affects hurricanes. While this Atlantic season was extreme, he points out that what we see in the Atlantic Basin is not representative of the rest of the globe. “Only about 12 percent of the world’s tropical cyclones occur in the Atlantic, and globally it has not been a very exceptional year.”


Atlantic Hurricane Season
 April 2020 forecast 2020 Actual
Named storms (>35mph)       13  30
Hurricanes (>72mph)        8  13
Major hurricanes (>111mph)        4  9
US landfall likelihood    55%  40% (12)
Gulf Coast landfall    32%  30% (9)
Florida landfall 7% (2) Keys and panhandle

The Named Storms of 2020:

NameActive PeriodPeak Strength
mph
TS ArthurMay 16-1960
TS BerthaMay 27-2850
TS CristobalJune 1-1050
TS DollyJune 21-2445
TS EdouardJuly 4-645
TS FayJuly 9-1160
TS GonzaloJuly 21-2565
Hurricane HannaJuly 23-2790 (Cat 1)
Hurricane IsaiasJul 28-Aug 585 (Cat 1)
TS JosephineAug 11-1645
TS KyleAug 14-1650
Hurricane LauraAug 20-29130 (Cat 4)
Hurricane MarcoAug 20-2575 (Cat 1)
TS OmarAug 31-Sep 540
Hurricane NanaSep 1-475 (Cat 1)
Hurricane PauletteSep 7-23105 (Cat 2)
TS ReneSep 7-1450
Hurricane SallySep 11-18105 (Cat 2)
Hurricane TeddySep 12-24140 (Cat 4)
TS VickySep 14-1750
TS BetaSep 17-2560
TS WilfredSep 18-2140
TS AlphaSep 18-1950
TS GammaOct 2-670
Hurricane DeltaOct 4-12145 (Cat 4)
Hurricane EpsilonOct 19-26115 (Cat 3)
Hurricane ZetaOct 24-29110 (Cat 2)
Hurricane EtaOct 31-Nov 13150 (Cat 4)
TS ThetaNov 10-1570
Hurricane IotaNov 13-18160 (Cat 5)
Hurricane Laura track
Hurricane Laura track August 20 – 29, 2020, becoming Cat 3 near landfall
Tropical Storm Isaias July 28 – August 5, 2020
Hurricane Delta October 4 – 12, 2020
Hurricane Zeta October 24 – 29, 2020
Hurricane Zeta wind field October 28, 2020
Tropical Storm Eta tracked west into central America causing widespread damage then returned east to cause havoc to Cuba, the Keys, and then north off the Florida west coast as Cat 4 hurricane October 24 – 28, 2020, weakening at time of landfall.

For detailed discussion of factors contributing to 2020 storm weather, see CSU meteorology (pdf).

Categories
Environment

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast




The 2018 extended range tropical forecast has been released updated by Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.

As at April 5 July 2, the forecast is for slightly above average storm activity below average activity for the Atlantic Ocean basin. The current weak La Niña is not expected to transition into a significant El Niño by summer and fall. El Niño conditions create vertical wind shear that inhibits hurricane formation. Without wind shear, the tropical Atlantic is conducive to storm development.

We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased. With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well.

The forecast predicts a slightly above-average below average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
(full details at https://tropical.colostate.edu)

2018 Forecast numbers:

Categories
Environment

2017 Hurricane Season Review




2017 Named storm tracks
2017 Named storm tracks

Summary:

  • Above average storm activity
  • Anna Maria Island evacuation for Irma, but no flooding, contrary to forecast 5′ – 15′ surge
  • 2 landfalls on Florida Gulf Coast (Irma and Philippe)
  • Broad swath of property damage, trees downed, and power outages across Florida from Irma
  • Minor damage to Anna Maria Island properties and trees. Maximum wind reported was 92mph as the eye of Irma traveled inland of the island
  • Anna Maria City Pier and restaurant damaged beyond repair
Anna Maria City Pier hurricane damage
Anna Maria City Pier hurricane damage Photo: Jack Elka, The Islander
Some Ficus, Banyan, Norfolk Pines blew over

The 2017 hurricane season was more active than predicted by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project forecast team. Three major hurricanes struck the United States: Harvey, Irma and Maria, causing devastating destruction to islands in the Caribbean and other portions of the tropical Atlantic:

“The 2017 hurricane season was extremely active. Overall, our predicted numbers from our early July and August issue dates for named storm and hurricane formations were relatively close to what was observed, but our early season predictions and our predictions for integrated metrics such as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) were far too low,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast at CSU.

Atlantic Hurricane Season April June 2017 forecast 2017 Actual
Named storms (>35mph) 11      13  16
Hurricanes (>72mph)  4       6  10
Major hurricanes (>111mph)  2       2  6
US landfall likelihood 42%   55%  31%
Gulf Coast landfall 24%   32%  13%

The Named Storms:

Arlene – Tropical Storm Apr 19-21 pre-season in Eastern Atlantic

Bret – Tropical Storm Jun 19 – 20 landfall Venezuela

Cindy – Tropical Storm Jun 20 – 23 landfall central Gulf Coast

Don – Tropical Storm Jul 17 – 18 no effects on land

Franklin – Hurricane Cat 1 Aug 7- 10 affecting Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Mexico

Gert – Hurricane Cat 2 Aug 13 – 17 no effects on land

Harvey – Hurricane Cat 4 Aug 17 – Sep 1 Landfall Yucatan and massive flooding in Houston,Texas

Irma – Hurricane Cat 5 Aug 30 – Sep 12 Devastated Leeward Islands, northern Cuba, landfall SE Florida with coast to coast hurricane force wind

Jose – Hurricane Cat 4 Sep 5 – 21 no effects on land

Katia – Hurricane Cat 2 Sep 5 – 9 Landfall eastern Mexico

Lee – Hurricane Cat 3 Sep 15 – 29 no effects on land

Maria – Hurricane Cat 5 Sep 16 – Sep 30 Landfall in Caribbean islands, badly affecting Puerto Rico

Nate – Hurricane Cat 1 Oct 4 – 9 crossed central America and Yucatan

Ophelia – Hurricane Cat 3 Oct 9 – 15 no effects on land

Philippe – Tropical Storm Oct 28 – 29 crossed Cuba and Florida Keys

Rina – Tropical Storm Nov 6 – 9 no effects on land