Tag Archives: Tropical Storms

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The first early forecast for the 2015 hurricane season has been released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, predicting another quiet year:

We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century.
It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall.
The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present.
We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

– Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, April 9, 2015

Atlantic Hurricane Season  April 2015 forecast Average
Named storms (>35mph winds)   7
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)   3   6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)   1   2
US landfall likelihood 28% 52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability 15% 30%
Major Hurricane in Caribbean probability 22% 42%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability * 0.3% 0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability* 8.1% 17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability* 2.3% 5.0%

http://landfalldisplay.geolabvirtualmaps.com

Early season forecasts are based on historical statistics and computer models that predict outcomes using climatological conditions present in January to March. The CSU model has been accurate in predicting above or below average seasons 23 out of 33 times, or 70%.

Measurements used include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and zonal wind strengths. Eastern tropical Pacific conditions in August to October, such as weak trades, low SST and SLP, are associated with La Nina formation, which is conducive to high activity in the tropical Atlantic. High SST, SLP and strong trades prevent warm air propagating from Western Pacific to the tropical Atlantic area and is referred to as El Nino, which correlates to a quieter Caribbean summer.

2015 Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly - El Nino

2015 Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly – El Nino

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2014 Atlantic Storm tracks

2014 Atlantic Storm tracks

Summary:

  • Below average activity with fewest named storms since 1997
  • No effects on Anna Maria Island
  • No landfalls on Florida
  • 1 Gulf of Mexico storm (TS Dolly)
  • 1 US mainland landfall (Arthur)
  • 2 major hurricanes (Cat 3 Edouard and Cat 4 Gonzalo)
  • The US broke a record of 9 years without a major hurricane landfall. The last major hurricane to make US landfall was Wilma (2005). The previous record of eight years was from 1861-1868.
  • Florida broke a record of 9 years without a hurricane impact (since 1851). The previous record of five years was from 1980-1984.
Atlantic Hurricane Season  June 2014 forecast  2014 Actual
Named storms (>35mph)  10  8
Hurricanes (>72mph)  4  6
Major hurricanes (>111mph)  1  2
US landfall likelihood  40%  12%
Gulf Coast landfall  23%  12%

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2014 hurricane season has arrived and the extended range summer analysis forecasts below-average activity and landfall strike possibility.

“We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, June 2, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season  June 2014 forecast Average
Named storms (>35mph winds)  10
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)   4  6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)   1   2
US landfall likelihood 40% 52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability 23% 30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability 0.5% 0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability 12.3% 17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability 3.5% 5.0%

Information obtained through May 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average. An anticipated below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is due to the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter cooler than normal tropical Atlantic.

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2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, was released April 10. The forecast anticipates enhanced activity compared to 1981-2010 climatological averages.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Atlantic Hurricane Season April August 2013 forecast 1981 – 2010 average
Named storms (>35mph winds)  18    18
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)  9        8
6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)  4        3
2
US landfall likelihood 72% 52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability 47% 30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability 1.7% 0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability 27.9% 17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability 8.5% 5.0%
Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

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Tropical Storm Isaac Effect On Anna Maria Island

All eyes were on the tropics last week as a depression formed into the named storm Isaac, which soon became tropical storm strength and headed into the Caribbean towards Hispaniola. Haiti took the first hit with heavy rains and flooding. Cuba was next in line with high surf and over-wash on the northern coast.

As Isaac continued unsubdued by land and on over the warm waters of the Florida Straights, intensification appeared likely but lack of vertical alignment of the core left the center ill-defined and passed by Key West with relatively little impact.

Meanwhile, Tampa prepared for the Republican Party national convention in the coming week but switched over to storm mode. The forecast path would bring Tropical Storm Isaac up the Gulf of Mexico coastline and risked dangerous consequences for the low-lying city and convention visitors.

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