Tag Archives: Tropical Storms

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The season’s first forecast for Atlantic hurricanes in 2016 has been released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project. After 10 years of below average activity, this year the expectation is for an “average” year. That is, a return to mean as recorded over the past 29 years of their data.

The strong El Nino effect in the Pacific during the past year has deflected storms and reduced winds aloft over the US mainland but is expected to weaken during this coming summer due to colder temperatures in the North Atlantic. By September the El Nino influence is expected to be gone, just in time for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, however, subsequently moderate La Nina conditions in late summer and fall could bring significant cooling.

We anticipate that the 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have approximately average activity. The current weakening El Niño is likely to transition to either neutral or La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While the tropical Atlantic is relatively warm, the far North Atlantic is quite cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

–  Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University 14 April, 2016

 

Atlantic Hurricane Season April 2016 forecastAverage
Named storms (>35mph winds)  12
 12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)  5  6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)  1  2
US landfall likelihood 50% 52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability 30% 30%
Major Hurricane in Caribbean probability 29% 42%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability* 0.6% 0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability* 16.3% 17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability* 4.7% 5.0%

Tracks of major hurricanes making Florida peninsula and East Coast landfall during 1916-1965 and 1966-2015.

Tracks of major hurricanes making Florida peninsula and East Coast landfall during 1916-1965 and 1966-2015.

The last hurricane effect in the Tampa Bay area was the Tarpon Springs hurricane of October, 1921. Anna Maria Island’s first bridge from Cortez, being constructed at the time, was damaged in the storm.

Anna Maria Island's last close-by hurricane made landfall at Tarpon Springs.

Anna Maria Island’s last close-by hurricane made landfall at Tarpon Springs.

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2015 Atlantic Storm tracks

2015 Atlantic Storm tracks

Summary:

  • Below average storm activity with fewest named storms since 1993
  • No impacts on Anna Maria Island
  • No landfalls on Florida
  • A record 65-straight hurricanes in the Atlantic have missed Florida
  • Last storm (Wilma) to hit Florida was 10 year ago, an all time record lull.
  • 1 Gulf of Mexico storm (TS Bill)
  • 1 US mainland landfall (TS Ana, pre hurricane season)
  • 2 major hurricanes (Cat 3 Danny and Cat 4 Joaquin)
Atlantic Hurricane Season April 2015 forecast 2015 Actual
Named storms (>35mph) 7 11
Hurricanes (>72mph) 3 4
Major hurricanes (>111mph) 1 2
US landfall likelihood 28% 9%
Gulf Coast landfall 15% 9%

The Named Storms:

Ana – Tropical Storm, May 8-11. Earliest on record. Landfall North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Bill – Tropical Storm, June 16-18. Landfall Matagorda Island, Texas.

Claudette – Tropical Storm, July 13-14

Danny – Hurricane Cat 3, August 18-24

Erika – Tropical Storm, August 25-29, impacting Dominica, Guadalupe, Puerto Rico, and Haiti.

Fred – Hurricane Cat 1, August 30 to September 6, first ever impact on Cape Verde Islands.

Grace – Tropical Storm, September 5-9

Henri – Tropical Storm, September 8-11

Ida – Tropical Storm, September 18-27

Joaquin – Hurricane Cat 4, September 28 to October 8, impacting Bahamas, and sinking cargo ship El Faro.

Kate – Tropical Storm, November 9-12

Continue reading “2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review” »

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The first early forecast for the 2015 hurricane season has been released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project, predicting another quiet year:

We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century.
It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall.
The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present.
We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

– Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, April 9, 2015

Atlantic Hurricane Season April 2015 forecastAverage
Named storms (>35mph winds)  7
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)  3  6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)  1   2
US landfall likelihood28%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability15%30%
Major Hurricane in Caribbean probability22%42%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability *0.3%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability*8.1%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability*2.3%5.0%

http://landfalldisplay.geolabvirtualmaps.com

Early season forecasts are based on historical statistics and computer models that predict outcomes using climatological conditions present in January to March. The CSU model has been accurate in predicting above or below average seasons 23 out of 33 times, or 70%.

Measurements used include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and zonal wind strengths. Eastern tropical Pacific conditions in August to October, such as weak trades, low SST and SLP, are associated with La Nina formation, which is conducive to high activity in the tropical Atlantic. High SST, SLP and strong trades prevent warm air propagating from Western Pacific to the tropical Atlantic area and is referred to as El Nino, which correlates to a quieter Caribbean summer.

2015 Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly - El Nino

2015 Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly – El Nino

Continue reading “2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast” »

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2014 Atlantic Storm tracks

2014 Atlantic Storm tracks

Summary:

  • Below average activity with fewest named storms since 1997
  • No effects on Anna Maria Island
  • No landfalls on Florida
  • 1 Gulf of Mexico storm (TS Dolly)
  • 1 US mainland landfall (Arthur)
  • 2 major hurricanes (Cat 3 Edouard and Cat 4 Gonzalo)
  • The US broke a record of 9 years without a major hurricane landfall. The last major hurricane to make US landfall was Wilma (2005). The previous record of eight years was from 1861-1868.
  • Florida broke a record of 9 years without a hurricane impact (since 1851). The previous record of five years was from 1980-1984.
Atlantic Hurricane Season June 2014 forecast 2014 Actual
Named storms (>35mph) 10 8
Hurricanes (>72mph) 4 6
Major hurricanes (>111mph) 1 2
US landfall likelihood 40% 12%
Gulf Coast landfall 23% 12%

Continue reading “2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review” »

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2014 hurricane season has arrived and the extended range summer analysis forecasts below-average activity and landfall strike possibility.

“We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”

Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, June 2, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season June 2014 forecastAverage
Named storms (>35mph winds) 10
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)  4  6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)  1   2
US landfall likelihood40%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability23%30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability0.5%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability12.3%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability3.5%5.0%

Information obtained through May 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average. An anticipated below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is due to the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter cooler than normal tropical Atlantic.

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