Tag Archives: Tropical Storms

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, was released April 10. The forecast anticipates enhanced activity compared to 1981-2010 climatological averages.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Atlantic Hurricane SeasonApril August 2013 forecast1981 – 2010 average
Named storms (>35mph winds) 18  18
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds) 9  8
6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds) 4  3
2
US landfall likelihood72%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability47%30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability1.7%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability27.9%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability8.5%5.0%
Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

Florida hurricane tracks since 1851

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Tropical Storm Isaac Effect On Anna Maria Island

All eyes were on the tropics last week as a depression formed into the named storm Isaac, which soon became tropical storm strength and headed into the Caribbean towards Hispaniola. Haiti took the first hit with heavy rains and flooding. Cuba was next in line with high surf and over-wash on the northern coast.

As Isaac continued unsubdued by land and on over the warm waters of the Florida Straights, intensification appeared likely but lack of vertical alignment of the core left the center ill-defined and passed by Key West with relatively little impact.

Meanwhile, Tampa prepared for the Republican Party national convention in the coming week but switched over to storm mode. The forecast path would bring Tropical Storm Isaac up the Gulf of Mexico coastline and risked dangerous consequences for the low-lying city and convention visitors.

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2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane season officially begins June 1 but sometimes a tropical storm forms before then. Since records began in 1851 there have been 23 seasons that have had storms prior to June 1. 2012 had two such early arrivals of Tropical Storm Alberto off the coast of the Carolinas, and Tropical Storm Beryl near the Georgia and Florida border.

The Atlantic basin hurricane season of 2012 forecast released April 4 by the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science from Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray predicts reduced activity for 2012 compared to 1981-2010, and below-average probability of a major hurricane landfall along the US coastline and in the Caribbean.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high.

The forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data.

Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

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How to Survive Hurricane Season on Anna Maria Island

There’s more to surviving hurricane season than knowing how and when to evacuate. Even in summers without any significant hurricanes coming near the island, I have noticed that hurricanes still interfere with life, and cause stress.

We usually are very lucky to get plenty of warning about every major storm of the season. The tracking begins very early, when they still are far from Florida. Although this early warning can save lots of lives, it also wears on the nerves, as we pay attention to every single storm for days and days. There’s usually a storm somewhere, so this means we are looking at storms and worrying about the results for most of the summer. If nothing else, it is distracting and tiring.

From June through October, we tend to obsess about watching tropical updates on the local news channel and on the Weather Channel, at ten minutes before the hour. Then there are all the programs about storm disasters. It’s enough to make you nervous even if no storm comes your way.

Anna Maria Island beach Then, if it looks like a storm might be coming your way, life is interrupted even more. At our house, we begin to pay attention to how many bottles of water we have, and to how much canned and dried food. If the predicted cone-shaped path of the hurricane continues to include Anna Maria Island, we then start organizing our important possessions. We make sure we have enough plywood for the windows. In the years before we had a mainland evacuation destination, we also would look around for motels on the mainland, and often we’d make a reservation just in case we needed it. The problem is that it’s sometimes difficult to know, ahead of time, exactly which nights you might need that reservation. And you might not need it at all. But if you wait, the motels will be full and there is the risk of having nowhere to go.

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Holmes Beach Surfs Hurricane Ike Surge

Anna Maria Island beaches felt the effects of Hurricane Ike this week with several days of high surf and high water.

Every day this past week brought a good swell and copious waves as Ike passed 300 miles away to the south west of Anna Maria Island.

Hurricane Ike waves Anna Maria Island

The storm emerged off the coast of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico with Tropical Storm strength winds and soon intensified into a Category 2-3 hurricane heading northwest.

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