The 2018 extended range tropical forecast has been released updated by Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.
As at April 5 July 2, the forecast is for slightly above average storm activity below average activity for the Atlantic Ocean basin. The current weak La Niña is not expected to transition into a significant El Niño by summer and fall. El Niño conditions create vertical wind shear that inhibits hurricane formation. Without wind shear, the tropical Atlantic is conducive to storm development.
We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased. With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well.
The forecast predicts a slightly above-average below average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
(full details at https://tropical.colostate.edu)
2018 Forecast numbers:
| Atlantic Hurricane Season | 30-year Median | |
| Named storms (>35mph winds) | | 12 |
| Hurricanes (>72mph winds) | | 6.5 |
| Major hurricanes (>111mph winds) | | 2 |
| US landfall likelihood | | 52% |
| Gulf Coast landfall probability | | 31% |
| Major Hurricane in Caribbean probability | | 42% |
| Manatee County hurricane landfall probability* | | 0.7% |
| Manatee County tropical storm probability* | | 17.1% |
| Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability* | | 5.0% |
*
In 2017, after a long period of low storm activity and 11 years without hurricanes, Anna Maria Island received a glancing blow from Hurricane Irma, which had devastated the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean as a Category 5, and then became a Florida coast-to-coast storm event after landfall in SE Florida. The eye passing to the east reduced major impact on Anna Maria Island but brought trees down and power out for several days. 92 mph winds were reported but no storm surge or flooding. The Anna Maria City Pier was damaged beyond repair.
