2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2022 season storms brought extensive and expensive damage to parts of Florida and Puerto Rico. Anna Maria Island experienced a relatively quiet season with the exception of Hurricane Ian. Storm damage was mainly to roof shingles and soffits in the 40-80mph winds.

There were 14 named storms of greater than gale force wind, same as recent year average. Of these, eight intensified to hurricane strength of over 72 mph, two of these became major hurricanes of over 111 mph sustained winds. Notably, August was the first time since 1997 that there was no storm at all.

Hurricane Ian tied for the fifth-strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S., at Category 4 with 150 mph maximum sustained winds. Ian posed a severe threat to the southwest coast of Florida as it intensified after crossing the Dry Tortugas of Florida Keys September 28, then slammed into Costa Cayo near Punta Gorda, transited central Florida and exited the state at Cape Canaveral. It then continued north and made a third landfall at Georgtown South Carolina.

Hurricane Fiona made landfall as a Category 1 at Puerto Rico.

Hurricane Niccole was the season’s third U.S. landfall at Hutchinson Island Florida as a Category 1.

The forecast trajectory of Hurricane Ian put Anna Maria Island on watch several days ahead for proximal impact. The storm strengthened as it traveled up the west gulf coast. Expectations of a major catastrophe were in everyone’s minds as residents prepared to evacuate inland.

Authorities issued mandatory evacuation orders, meaning local emergency services would not be available if people stayed. Usually the loss of electricity can be expected but alternative resources can be planned. Controversially they ordered the water supply shut off early in the days before the storm’s forecast arrival. Once off the island, return would require an official permit. Most people evacuated whether they wanted to or not.

Hurricane Ian forecast wind field September 27, 2023

As the forecast path fluctuated left and right, the angle of approach made projected landfall vary by 100’s of miles. Being on the east or west side of a counterclockwise rotating hurricane center can make a huge difference in wind strength and resultant impact.

Hurricane Ian forecast path prior to landfall.
Hurricane Ian forecast

Similarly to Hurricane Charley in 2004, Hurricane Ian trended right during the last few hours before landfall, lashing Anna Maria Island with gusty winds from the north but little rain, and no storm surge, while exploding into Captiva Island 70 miles south, leaving a devastating wake of crushed and submerged houses, downed trees, washed out bridge to the mainland, and flooded cars and boats over a wide swath from Fort Myers to Port Charlotte and inland. Storm surge was reported to be up to 18 feet above sea level. 114 people died.

Hurricane Nicole made an east coast landfall near Vero Beach, Florida, with 75 mph (120 km/h) sustained winds. Nicole then weakened to a tropical storm inland, as it moved across Central Florida. Later that day, its center briefly emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, north of Tampa, before moving onshore again northwest of Cedar Key. Impact on Anna Maria Island was minimal.

Hurricane Nicole skirted Tampa Bay and Anna Maria Island November 10, 2022.

Complete List of Storms 2022

mph (km/h)
Areas affectedDeaths
AlexJune 5–6TS70 (110)Yucatán Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, Northern Bahamas, Bermuda4
BonnieJuly 1–2TS50 (85)Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Colombia, Venezuela, ABC Islands, Central America (before crossover)4
ColinJuly 1–2TS40 (65)South Atlantic United States1
DanielleSeptember 1–8Cat 190 (150)Western Iberian PeninsulaNone
EarlSeptember 3–10Cat 2105 (165)Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Bermuda, Newfoundland2
FionaSeptember 14–24Cat 4130 (215)Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Eastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Eastern Canada31
GastonSeptember 20–26TS65 (100)AzoresNone
IanSeptember 23–30Cat 4155 (250)Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Colombia, ABC islands, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Southeastern Coast of the United States?157
HermineSeptember 23–25TS40 (65)Canary IslandsNone
ElevenSeptember 28–2935 (55)NoneNone
TwelveOctober 4–735 (55)NoneNone
JuliaOctober 7–9Cat 185 (140)Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, ABC Islands, Colombia, Central America (before crossover)91
KarlOctober 11–15TS60 (95)Southern Mexico3
LisaOctober 31 – November 5Cat 185 (140)Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Central AmericaNone
MartinNovember 1–3Cat 185 (140)NoneNone
NicoleNovember 7–11Cat 175 (120)The Bahamas, Southeastern Coast of the United States11

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2021 became the third most active season on record with 21 named storms, and the sixth year in a row of above average of storms of prior seasons. April forecasts projected slightly higher activity than average.

The first named storm Ana formed May 22, earlier than the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season of June 1 to November 30.

July 1 began with Hurricane Elsa, an early strong storm, causing major damage to Barbados then again on the US east coast after crossing northern Florida and Georgia.

The forecast trajectory of Elsa put Anna Maria Island on watch several days ahead for proximal impact but the storm weakened as it traveled up the west gulf coast as a tropical storm and passed by with below gale force wind and minor rain. The highest gust reported at Sarasota Airport was 54mph. About 2.8” rain fell locally. One Florida man was killed by a falling tree.

Hurricane Elsa forecast path July 2, 2021

Hurricane Ida began August 23 in the Caribbean Sea and intensified rapidly into a category 1 hurricane as it hit Cuba with 80mph winds. Then Ida continued to strengthen over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters into a category 4 storm with 150mph winds, making landfall in Louisiana at a wind strength tying the records of 1856 and 2005 (Katrina).

Anna Maria Island and Florida west coast were unaffected.

Hurricane Ida forecast path August 27, 2021

The complete list of 2021 Atlantic named storms:

NameDateCategoryMax WindAffected
AnaMay 22 – 23TS45Bermuda
BillJune 14 – 15TS65East Coast of the United States, 
Atlantic Canada
ClaudetteJune 19 – 22TS45Southern 
Southern United States, 
Atlantic Canada
DannyJune 27 – 29TS45South Carolina, 
ElsaJuly 1 – 9Cat 185Lesser Antilles, 
Greater Antilles, 
South Atlantic United States, 
Northeastern United States, 
Atlantic Canada, 
FredAugust 11 – 17TS65Lesser Antilles, 
Greater Antilles, 
The Bahamas, 
Southeastern United States, Eastern 
Great Lakes Region, 
Northeastern United States, Southern 
The Maritimes
GraceAugust 13 – 21Cat 3125Lesser Antilles, 
Greater Antilles, 
Yucatan Peninsula, Central Mexico
HenriAugust 16 – 23Cat 175Bermuda, 
Northeastern United States, Southern 
Nova Scotia
IdaAug 26 – Sep 1Cat 4150Venezuela, 
Cayman Islands, 
Southern United States, 
Northeastern United States, 
Atlantic Canada
JulianAug 28 – 30TS60None
KateAug 28 – Sep 1TS45None
LarryAug 31 – Sep 11Cat 3125Lesser Antilles, 
East Coast of the United States, 
Nova Scotia, 
Saint Pierre and Miquelon, 
MindySep 8 – 10TS45Colombia, 
Central America, 
Yucatán Peninsula, 
South Carolina
NicholasSep 12 – 16Cat 175Mexico, 
Gulf Coast of the United States
OdetteSep 17 – 18TS45East Coast of the United States, 
Atlantic Canada
PeterSep 19 – 23TS50Hispaniola, 
Leeward Islands, 
Puerto Rico
RoseSep 19 – 23TS50None
SamSep 22 – Oct 5Cat 4155West Africa, 
Leeward Islands, 
Puerto Rico, 
TeresaSep 24 – 25Sub TS45Bermuda
VictorSep 29 – Oct 4TS65None
WandaOct 31 – Nov 7TS50Southern United States, 
Mid-Atlantic states, 
Northeastern United States, Bermuda, Atlantic Canada
2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Storm Tracks

2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

2021 is likely to be “near normal” in terms of tropical activity, though there is more risk of an active season. Impacts from landfalling hurricanes could shift eastward this season toward the U.S. East Coast and the Leeward Islands. 

The forecast for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season from June-November shows the likelihood for a near normal season, with 

  • tropical cyclone activity at ~107% of normal anticipated 
  • range of activity from 97-119% of normal 
  • 17 named storms (average 14)
  • 8 hurricanes  (average 7)
  • 3 major hurricanes (average 3)

Unlike last season, the 2021 outlook does not include a hyperactive season within the expected range of outcomes, though there is very little chance for below normal activity this season. It should be noted that a “normal hurricane season” now represents higher levels of tropical activity in all aspects because of the climatology update uses 1991-2020 as the baseline instead of 1981-2010 period used previously. If 2021 outlook was issued based on the previous climatology, the forecast would call for an active season instead of a near normal one. 

2021 Storm Forecast (red) compared to normal (blue)
2021 Storm Forecast (red) compared to normal (blue)

The Greek alphabet will no longer be used to extend the named storms’ list. If all names in the first list have been used, a supplemental list will begin.

The major ocean basins’ data support a near to above normal season of tropical activity once again. Beginning with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), there is an 80% chance of neutral or La Niña conditions being in place by the August-October peak of hurricane season, with only a 20% chance of El Niño. 

La Niña is the most favorable state for active Atlantic seasons as it supports low vertical wind shear needed for tropical cyclone formation and intensification, so the strong likelihood of neutral or La Niña conditions in 2021 suggests an active year while the slight El Niño chance reduces that potential. 

The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) shows an 80% chance to be in its favorable warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) phase for Atlantic tropical activity. 

The largest question is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has a connection to Atlantic occurrence of dry air that suppresses tropical cyclone formation. In 2021, there are questions about the state of the IOD by August-October, which supports a nearer to normal hurricane season. 

The most reliable forecast variable is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which is widely viewed as the best measure of cyclone activity instead of the total named storm number and hurricane number. Since tropical cyclones vary wildly in duration from 1-10+ days, similar numbers of storms in different years can still represent very different levels of activity. 

The spread among the storms is relatively narrow, with 20% of the years showing below normal activity while the other 80% showed above normal activity. Due to the narrow range among prior years relative to the new normal level of activity, 100% of the prior years used in the forecast are in the “near normal” range. This results in a high confidence outlook for near to above normal activity in 2021, with the direction of ENSO and the IOD being the key issues to monitor.  

The data used in the forecast and current SST anomalies both indicate the U.S. East Coast being at the greater risk for higher impacts than usual, based on warm ocean waters off the coastline. If the model holds, any developing tropical cyclone that moves across the Western Atlantic approaching the U.S. will have ample energy to become a high-impact hurricane if other environmental conditions allow. There is also a consensus for slightly warmer than normal SST around the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean Sea, making that another area to watch for high-end impacts this season. Gulf of Mexico SST is not low but  not near the record warmth of last year. 

Annual Atlantic seasonal  tropical cyclone activity from 1982-2021, with 2000, 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2018 highlighted in red for active, green for inactive seasons (June-November), and the 2021 forecast highlighted in purple.
Annual Atlantic seasonal  tropical cyclone activity from 1982-2021, with 2000, 2008, 2011, 2012, and 2018 highlighted in red for active, green for inactive seasons (June-November), and the 2021 forecast highlighted in purple.

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The season’s first updated June forecast for Atlantic hurricanes in 2017 has been released by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.

(April 6 ) This year, 2017, the expectation is for a “below average” year, based on 29 years of observations from 1981 to 2010. There is the potential for shear-enhancing El Niño conditions to develop over the next several months. The tropical Atlantic has cooled over the past month, and the far North Atlantic is currently colder than normal. These cold anomalies tend to force atmospheric conditions that are less conducive for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.

(June 1) We have increased our forecast and now believe that 2017 will have approximately average activity. The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have diminished somewhat, and portions of the tropical Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past two months. While the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, the far North Atlantic remains colder than normal, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

August 2004, Hurricane Charley washed out part of Captiva Island.
August 2004, Hurricane Charley washed out part of Captiva Island.

From :-

We anticipate that the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below- average activity. The current neutral ENSO is likely to transition to either weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past month and the far North Atlantic is relatively cold, potentially indicative of a negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
by Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell (as of 6 April 2017)

An analysis of a variety of different atmosphere and ocean measurements (through March) which are known to have long-period statistical relationships with the upcoming season’s Atlantic tropical cyclone activity indicate that 2017 should have slightly below-average activity. The big question marks with this season’s predictions are whether an El Niño develops, as well as what the configuration of Sea Surface Temperatures will look like in the tropical and far North Atlantic Ocean during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

June 1 – Our confidence that a weak to moderate El Niño will develop has diminished since early April. While upper ocean content heat anomalies have slowly increased over the past several months, the transition towards warm ENSO conditions appears to have been delayed compared with earlier expectations. At this point, we believe that the most realistic scenario for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is borderline warm neutral ENSO to weak El Niño conditions. There remains a need to closely monitor ENSO conditions over the next few months. Additional discussion of ENSO will be included with the July 1 and August 4 updates.

2017 Forecast numbers:

Atlantic Hurricane SeasonApril    June 2017 forecast29-year Median
Named storms (>35mph winds) 11         13
Hurricanes (>72mph winds) 4             6
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds) 2             22
US landfall likelihood42%        55%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability24%        32%30%
Major Hurricane in Caribbean
34%        44%42%
Manatee County hurricane landfall
0.6%        0.7%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm
14.7%      18.3%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts
4.2%        5.4%5.0%
Tracks of major hurricanes making Florida peninsula and East Coast landfall during 1916-1965 and 1966-2015.
Tracks of major hurricanes making Florida peninsula and East Coast landfall during 1916-1965 and

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2016 Atlantic storm tracks


  • Slightly above average storm activity
  • Flooding impacts on Anna Maria Island (Colin and Hermine)
  • 2 landfalls on Florida Gulf Coast (Colin and Hermine)
  • 11-year record lull of no major hurricane landfalls on Florida
  • 1 major hurricane came within 50 miles of Florida East Coast (Cat 5 Mathew)
Atlantic Hurricane Season April 2016 forecast 2016 Actual
Named storms (>35mph) 12 15
Hurricanes (>72mph) 5 7
Major hurricanes (>111mph) 1 3
US landfall likelihood 50% 33%
Gulf Coast landfall 30% 13%

The Named Storms:

Alex – Hurricane Cat 1 Jan 13-15 pre-season in Eastern Atlantic

Bonnie – Tropical Storm May 27 – Jun 4 weak South Carolina landfall

Colin – Tropical Storm Jun 5 – 7 High tide flooding on Anna Maria Island

Danielle – Tropical Storm Jun 19 – 21 affecting Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Mexico

Earl – Hurricane Cat 1 Aug 2 – 6 affecting Antilles, Dominican Republic, Belize and Mexico

Fiona – Tropical Storm Aug 17 – 23 no effects on land

Gaston – Hurricane Cat 3 Aug 22 – Sep 3 no effects on land

Hermine – Hurricane Cat 1 Aug 28 – Sep 3 Rain and high tide flooding on Anna Maria Island landfall in Big Bend of Florida

Ian – Tropical Storm Sep 12 – 16 no effects on land

Julia – Tropical Storm Sep 14 – 18 Formed over Florida but main impact was on North Carolina and Virginia

Karl – Tropical Storm Sep 14 – 25 affecting Bermuda

Lisa – Tropical Storm Sep 19 – 24 no effects on land

Mathew – Hurricane Cat 5 Sep 28 – Oct 9 Landfall in Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas. Close to but not making landfall on Florida East Coast

Nicole – Hurricane Cat 4 Oct 4 – 18 Affecting Bermuda, US East Coast and Canada

Otto – Hurricane Cat 2 Nov 21 – 25 late season landfall in Nicaragua re-emerging in Eastern Pacific