The 2020 extended range tropical forecast has been published by Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.
As at April 2, the forecast is for above average activity for the Atlantic Ocean basin. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are somewhat above normal and potentially expect weak La Niña conditions by this summer or fall.
The forecast predicts an above average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. (full details at
Does “daylight savings time” save energy? Does it save money? Does it save lives? Does getting up when the sun is lower in the morning sky mean you have more time before you go to bed at night?
“One hundred years ago when they first proposed this, they said it was about saving energy,” said Michael Downing, author of “Spring Forward: The Annual Madness of Daylight Saving Time. This has never been realized no matter how many times they say it.”
A University of California study has shown that DST doesn’t save anyone any money at all. In fact, it’s costing consumers extra, to the tune of $3.19 in extra utility bills per year. The study was made possible because of the peculiarities of the state of Indiana, which was only partially on DST until 2006. When the whole state finally went DST (to sync with the national business day), some comparisons vs. the prior method were made apparent. The study calculated that the shift costs Indiana residents an extra $8.6 million in electricity bills in total.
If the justification for DST has always been energy savings, why isn’t ‘saving daylight’ burning fewer light bulbs and saving energy?
Red tide algae bloom was detected on Anna Maria Island shores August 3, 2018, and affected air and sealife soon after. While the municipalities and county services cleaned up dead fish on the beaches, the irritating smell sent people to seek indoor relief and, as word spread, visitors cancelled their trips.
(Update September 5, 2018 below at end of article.)
The current bloom is from microscopic Karenia Brevis, an alga native to Gulf of Mexico, spreading north from Naples to Tampa Bay.
K. Brevis concentrations Florida Gulf Coast, from Florida Wildlife Conservation https://myfwc.com/research/redtide/statewide/
Dead fish started turning up in the bay-side waters and canals a few days ago, but not as prevalent as the last red tide fish kill in December, 2015, which lasted several weeks.
Dead fish and sea grass August 2018 Red Tide
Red Tide December 2015 piled dead fish at the end of canals
Red tide January 2013 fish kill on Anna Maria Island beach
Since August 20, 103 manatee have died of which 29 tested positive for K. Brevis, and suspected in the 74 others. The manatee death toll so far this year from all causes has reached 554, compared to 527 for all of 2017.
Red tide also affects turtles and seabirds. “This year so far, we have rescued or recovered a total of 137 sea turtles,” said Hayley Rutger, spokesperson for Mote Marine Laboratory. “A lot of those were already deceased. Some of them were affected by humans, like boat strikes or entanglements in fishing gear, but some of them are suspected to have been affected by the ongoing red tide bloom.”
“Cormorants will dive through the water, and they’re basically diving right through the blooms so they’re getting it in their eyes and their faces and their mouths,” explained Avian Hospital Administrator Dana Leworthy. “They don’t necessarily need to ingest the fish to get the red tide.”
Although the Florida red tide is a naturally occurring phenomenon, agricultural and urban runoff can prolong red tide blooms inshore.
Hurricane Charley washed over Captiva Island in 2004
The 2018 extended range tropical forecast has been released updated by Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science.
As at April 5 July 2, the forecast is for slightly above average storm activity below average activity for the Atlantic Ocean basin. The current weak La Niña is not expected to transition into a significant El Niño by summer and fall. El Niño conditions create vertical wind shear that inhibits hurricane formation. Without wind shear, the tropical Atlantic is conducive to storm development.
We have decreased our forecast and now believe that 2018 will have below-average activity. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic is currently much colder than normal, and the odds of a weak El Niño developing in the next several months have increased. With the decrease in our forecast, the probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean has decreased as well.
The forecast predicts a slightly above-average below average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
(full details at https://tropical.colostate.edu)
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