Summary:
- Slightly above average storm activity
- Flooding impacts on Anna Maria Island (Colin and Hermine)
- 2 landfalls on Florida Gulf Coast (Colin and Hermine)
- 11-year record lull of no major hurricane landfalls on Florida
- 1 major hurricane came within 50 miles of Florida East Coast (Cat 5 Mathew)
Atlantic Hurricane Season | April 2016 forecast | 2016 Actual |
Named storms (>35mph) | 12 | 15 |
Hurricanes (>72mph) | 5 | 7 |
Major hurricanes (>111mph) | 1 | 3 |
US landfall likelihood | 50% | 33% |
Gulf Coast landfall | 30% | 13% |
The Named Storms:
Alex – Hurricane Cat 1 Jan 13-15 pre-season in Eastern Atlantic
Bonnie – Tropical Storm May 27 – Jun 4 weak South Carolina landfall
Colin – Tropical Storm Jun 5 – 7 High tide flooding on Anna Maria Island
Danielle – Tropical Storm Jun 19 – 21 affecting Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Mexico
Earl – Hurricane Cat 1 Aug 2 – 6 affecting Antilles, Dominican Republic, Belize and Mexico
Fiona – Tropical Storm Aug 17 – 23 no effects on land
Gaston – Hurricane Cat 3 Aug 22 – Sep 3 no effects on land
Hermine – Hurricane Cat 1 Aug 28 – Sep 3 Rain and high tide flooding on Anna Maria Island landfall in Big Bend of Florida
Ian – Tropical Storm Sep 12 – 16 no effects on land
Julia – Tropical Storm Sep 14 – 18 Formed over Florida but main impact was on North Carolina and Virginia
Karl – Tropical Storm Sep 14 – 25 affecting Bermuda
Lisa – Tropical Storm Sep 19 – 24 no effects on land
Mathew – Hurricane Cat 5 Sep 28 – Oct 9 Landfall in Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas. Close to but not making landfall on Florida East Coast
Nicole – Hurricane Cat 4 Oct 4 – 18 Affecting Bermuda, US East Coast and Canada
Otto – Hurricane Cat 2 Nov 21 – 25 late season landfall in Nicaragua re-emerging in Eastern Pacific
For detailed discussion of factors contributing to 2016 storm weather, see CSU meteorology (pdf).
The follow-on effects of the 2015 El Nino summer, which cooled the Pacific, did not produce an anticipated strong La Nina but an observed weak La Nina did support a slightly more active subsequent summer cycle for 2016.