Tag: Florida hurricanes

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

Post author By Mark
Post date December 4, 2014
No Comments on 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

Summary:

Below average activity with fewest named storms since 1997
No effects on Anna Maria Island
No landfalls on Florida
1 Gulf of Mexico storm (TS Dolly)
1 US mainland landfall (Arthur)
2 major hurricanes (Cat 3 Edouard and Cat 4 Gonzalo)
The US broke a record of 9 years without a major hurricane landfall. The last major hurricane to make US landfall was Wilma (2005). The previous record of eight years was from 1861-1868.
Florida broke a record of 9 years without a hurricane impact (since 1851). The previous record of five years was from 1980-1984.

Atlantic Hurricane Season	June 2014 forecast	2014 Actual
Named storms (>35mph)	10	8
Hurricanes (>72mph)	4	6
Major hurricanes (>111mph)	1	2
US landfall likelihood	40%	12%
Gulf Coast landfall	23%	12%

Tags Anna Maria Island hurricanes, Florida hurricanes, Hurricanes, Tropical Storms

Environment

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Post author By Mark
Post date June 4, 2014
1 Comment on 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2014 hurricane season has arrived and the extended range summer analysis forecasts below-average activity and landfall strike possibility.

“We continue to foresee a below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic remains slightly cooler than normal, while El Niño is in the process of developing. However, the transition to El Niño has slowed some in recent weeks, and the tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed, causing us to increase our forecast slightly. We are still calling for a below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.”
Drs Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, Colorado State University, June 2, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season	June 2014 forecast	Average
Named storms (>35mph winds)	10	12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds)	4	6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds)	1	2
US landfall likelihood	40%	52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability	23%	30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability	0.5%	0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability	12.3%	17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability	3.5%	5.0%

Information obtained through May 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 80 percent of the long-period average. An anticipated below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season is due to the likelihood of El Niño development along with a slighter cooler than normal tropical Atlantic.