Tag: Hurricanes

Categories
Environment

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2013 Atlantic Storm Tracks
2013 Atlantic Storm Tracks

Summary:

  • The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active season so far this century, and
    the quietest on record since 1950.
  • No effects on Anna Maria Island.
  • 1 storm made US landfall in NW Florida (T.S. Andrea).
  • 2 hurricanes barely reached Cat 1 (Humberto, Ingrid).
  • Season’s latest recorded hurricane since 1960 (Humberto, September 11th).
  • Fewest hurricanes per named storms in historical records.
  • No “major hurricanes” (Cat 3 or higher).
  • Lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 1983.
Atlantic Hurricane Season June 2013 forecast 2013 Actual
Named storms (>35mph) 18 13
Hurricanes (>72mph) 8 2
Major hurricanes (>111mph) 3 0
US landfall likelihood 72% 7%
Gulf Coast landfall 47% 7%

The Named Storms

Andrea – Tropical Storm,  June 5-7, 55kn wind, landfall ‘Big Bend’ of Florida.

Barry – Tropical Storm,  June 17-19, 40kn wind, landfall Belize; then Veracruz, Mexico.

Continue reading “2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review”
Categories
Environment

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from Drs. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, was released April 10. The forecast anticipates enhanced activity compared to 1981-2010 climatological averages.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Atlantic Hurricane SeasonApril August 2013 forecast1981 – 2010 average
Named storms (>35mph winds) 18    18
12
Hurricanes (>72mph winds) 9        8
6.5
Major hurricanes (>111mph winds) 4        3
2
US landfall likelihood72%52%
Gulf Coast landfall probability47%30%
Manatee County hurricane landfall probability1.7%0.7%
Manatee County tropical storm probability27.9%17.1%
Manatee County >75mph wind gusts probability8.5%5.0%
Florida hurricane tracks since 1851
Florida hurricane tracks since 1851
Continue reading “2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast”
Categories
Environment

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review

2012 Atlantic storm tracks
2012 Atlantic storm tracks

Summary:

  • No effects on Anna Maria Island besides some temporary beach erosion by Debby.
  • 2 storms (Alberto, Beryl) formed prior to official season start June 1
  • Earliest “D” named storm ever recorded
  • No “major hurricanes” (Cat 3 or higher) made US landfall
  • 4 storms made US landfalls (Beryl, Debby, Isaac, Sandy)
  • Largest storm area of 900 miles across ever recorded (Sandy)
  • Hurricane Sandy (Cat 2) caused major wind damage and flooding to NJ and NY shorelines with peak surge coinciding with high tide.
Atlantic Hurricane SeasonJune 2012 forecast 2012 Actual
Named storms (>35mph)1319
Hurricanes (>72mph)510
Major hurricanes (>111mph)21
US landfall likelihood48%21%
Gulf Coast landfall28%5%

Beryl – Tropical Storm, 65mph wind, May 26-30, landfall Jacksonville Beach Florida, heavy rain in Cuba, Bahamas, South Florida

Debby – Tropical Storm, 60mph wind, June 23-26, landfall Steinhatchee Florida, heavy rain in north Florida with west coast beach erosion

Continue reading “2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Review”
Categories
Environment

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane season officially begins June 1 but sometimes a tropical storm forms before then. Since records began in 1851 there have been 23 seasons that have had storms prior to June 1. 2012 had two such early arrivals of Tropical Storm Alberto off the coast of the Carolinas, and Tropical Storm Beryl near the Georgia and Florida border.

The Atlantic basin hurricane season of 2012 forecast released April 4 by the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science from Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray predicts reduced activity for 2012 compared to 1981-2010, and below-average probability of a major hurricane landfall along the US coastline and in the Caribbean.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high.

The forecast is based on a new extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data.

Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

Continue reading “2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast”
Categories
Environment

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

The forecast for the Atlantic basin hurricane season of 2011 has been released by the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science from Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray.

They continue to foresee above-average activity for 2011, and above-average probability of a major hurricane landfall.

“We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic.

Continue reading “2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast”